First Quarter 2025: Watchmaking Between Surface Resilience and Deep Tensions
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FRENCH VERSION
ENGLISH VERSION
A Mixed Start to the Year for Watch Exports
The first quarter of 2025 presents a mixed picture for the Swiss watch market, marked by a decline in export volumes but relative resilience in value. After an encouraging January, which saw a 4.1% increase in value to reach nearly CHF 2 billion, February reversed the trend with an 8.2% drop, bringing monthly exports down to CHF 1.98 billion. Over the first two months of the year, the cumulative decline stands at around -2.4% compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting more hesitant global demand, particularly in certain segments. The decline is even more pronounced in volume, with only 2.23 million watches exported in January and February, a 6% drop compared to 2024, confirming a structural trend of falling volumes in favor of higher-end positioning.
Luxury Holds Firm, Mid-Range Falters
The market structure remains dominated by luxury, which continues to drive the entire sector. In January, export watches priced above CHF 3,000 saw their value grow by 7%, with volume remaining stable at +0.6%, while intermediate and mid-range segments fell heavily, as illustrated by the CHF 500 to CHF 3,000 segment, which lost 15.4% in February. Watches under CHF 200 grew slightly (+0.7% in January and +2.7% in February), driven in particular by popular models like the MoonSwatch. In parallel, exports of precious metal watches jumped 9.7% in January, confirming sustained interest in exclusive pieces despite a decline in volume. Steel models saw their value decline by 2.4% in January and then by 8% in February, with bimetallic watches showing a similar dynamic. Watches made from other materials, often plastic or composite materials, saw their volumes collapse (-24% in January) but with almost stable value, showing that certain popular references are holding their ground.
Persistent Macroeconomic Pressure
Macroeconomic factors are weighing heavily on the entire sector. Consumer confidence is weakened by economic uncertainties, particularly in the United States, where the new administration's trade policy has cast a chill over short-term prospects. In Europe, growth is sluggish and inflation continues to weigh on discretionary spending. The Swiss franc remains strong, making exports more expensive. Falling inflation in some regions could give consumers some breathing room, but there is no guarantee of a rapid turnaround. Both the European Central Bank and the Fed are maintaining high interest rates, slowing down consumer credit. Furthermore, geopolitics remain tense, with the war in Ukraine, China-US tensions, and the lack of a clear recovery in Chinese tourism. These headwinds are keeping buyers cautious.
The Secondary Market Stabilizes After the Drop
Meanwhile, the secondary market has continued its stabilization phase. After losing 25% in value between mid-2022 and the end of 2023, pre-owned watch prices have found some stability, with a moderate increase of 1.18% in the second half of 2024 and near-stagnation in early 2025.
Mid-range brands like Breitling (+8%), TAG Heuer (+4.5%), and Hublot (+3.6%) have seen their secondary market values rise. In contrast, ultra-collectible models from Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet are struggling to regain ground. Vintage watches remain highly sought after, especially at auction, where records continue to be broken for historic pieces. The rise of resale platforms like Chrono24, WatchBox, and Watchfinder, along with the arrival of certified programs like Rolex CPO, is changing the game. The secondary market, estimated at over USD 20 billion per year, could soon rival the Swiss new watch market,
forcing brands to monitor their pricing and authentication strategies. The pre-owned market is becoming a strategic tool to capture a younger clientele, offer an alternative to buying new, and control perceived value over the long term.
Current Stylistic and Technical Trends
From a stylistic and technological standpoint, several strong trends are emerging. The downsizing of watch cases is clear, with a massive return to diameters between 36 and 40 mm, driven by both men and women. The vintage aesthetic continues to dominate, accompanied by a spectacular comeback of yellow gold, now visible in all major collections. Natural stone dials such as lapis lazuli, onyx, and malachite are highly popular, recalling 1970s designs. The dominant color of the year, according to some observers, could be mocha brown, in line with currently fashionable natural tones. In terms of materials, ceramic, forged carbon, and alternative metals are gaining ground, while sustainability is becoming an increasingly important criterion, with experiments around ethical gold and recycled steel. On the technical side, movements are becoming more precise, stable, and durable. COSC certifications are being strengthened, silicon components are becoming widespread, and power reserves are growing longer. Innovation is also reflected in the digitalization of the customer experience: blockchain digital passports, tracking apps, extended warranties, and authentication platforms are becoming the norm.
Outlook for the Rest of 2025
Despite a more challenging global context, the outlook for 2025 remains relatively stable. The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry anticipates a flat or even slightly negative year, with demand remaining weak in China and US growth softening. Brands will likely refocus their efforts on their best-sellers, slow down production, strengthen their certified pre-owned offerings, and adjust their messaging to capture a new generation of enthusiasts. The watch industry is once again demonstrating its resilience. After a euphoric cycle and a period of digestion, it is entering a phase of strategic adjustment, where only houses capable of embodying a strong and coherent vision will succeed in maintaining desire for mechanical timepieces. The fundamentals remain solid, wealthy clients remain loyal, and brands have a year ahead of them to prepare for the rebound that many hope to see in 2026.
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