Swiss Watchmaking: A Recovery That Does Not Benefit Everyone

Swiss watch exports have been rising for four months. However, between a base effect in the United States, concentration around four brands, and struggling subcontractors, the recovery remains highly uneven.

On paper, Swiss watchmaking is improving. In September 2026, its exports grew by 11.7% year-on-year to 2.23 billion francs, according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH). This is the fourth consecutive month of growth since June, and the number of exported pieces jumped by nearly 20% to 1.4 million. Over the first nine months of the year, the sector posted a 2.7% increase to 19.5 billion francs, following two years of decline in 2024 and 2025.

A large part of the September increase came from the United States, where shipments surged by 85.7%. However, the comparison is with September 2025, a month when US deliveries collapsed by more than half after the introduction of 39% customs duties. The rebound is therefore primarily a base effect. The same caution applies to France, whose purchases more than doubled: the FH itself mentions possible transfers of flows between markets, with France serving as a logistics hub since products imported from the European Union are taxed less in the United States. China, long the engine of growth, fell by another 14%.

The breakdown by price range tells a more nuanced story than it seems. In September, the cheapest watches grew the most in value: +52.1% between 200 and 500 francs for export, and +30.2% under 200 francs, compared to +11.8% between 500 and 3,000 francs and +9.9% above. After years of decline, the entry-level segment is finally breathing. However, the mid-range is coming off a difficult first half of the year: in May, volumes in the 500 to 3,000 francs bracket fell by another 17.2% while the high-end segment grew. One favorable month is not enough to erase this underlying trend.

Because the real transformation of the sector lies elsewhere. According to the annual report by Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult, Switzerland exported around 14.6 million watches in 2025, a multi-decade low, with value down 1.7%. At the same time, four independent brands, Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille, increased their combined market share to 49.1%. Rolex alone accounts for nearly a third of the sector, with an estimated turnover of around 11 billion francs. Only 12 of the top 50 brands saw their sales grow. Swiss watchmaking is selling fewer, more expensive watches, and most of the value is concentrated at the top.

This concentration leaves losers behind the scenes. Subcontractors in the Jura Arc, who manufacture cases, dials, and components, are the first to feel the drop in orders: their order books reportedly fell by around 30% in the first quarter of 2026, according to figures reported by Luxury Tribune. Those working for the strongest brands are holding up, while others are struggling. Multi-brand retailers are also under pressure as major houses open their own boutiques and take back control of distribution, as illustrated by Rolex's acquisition of Bucherer.

For the buyer and collector, this landscape has concrete consequences. Brands that control their production and sales network retain significant pricing power, which also supports their performance on the secondary market. This is what we observe in our Rolex 25, Patek 25, and Audemars 25 indexes, as well as in our ranking of the most profitable watches. Conversely, mid-range houses, which are more exposed to the slowdown, are more tempted by discounts and excess stock, which weighs on the resale value of their models. To see where your own watch stands, you can track its value in your Osterman portfolio. The recovery in exports is real, but it remains fragile and uneven. The October figures, expected at the end of November, will show whether the momentum in the entry-level segment is confirmed or if it was just a catch-up effect.

Sources: Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH); Luxury Tribune (October 21, 2026 and April 13, 2026); Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult, Swiss Watcher 2026; Deloitte, 2025 Swiss watch industry study; Insight Luxury (May 2026).